November 2012 Home Prices Up, And Will Go Higher

January 29, 2013 by Leave a Comment

S&P/Case-Shiller released its November 2012 Home Price Index this morning. Home prices in the 20-City Composite, which includes Portland, rose 5.5% in the twelve months ending in November 2012. Portland rose 6.7% over the same twelve months.

Two overlooked points:

  1. Whereas the November to November numbers are strong, more impressive is the change from the low point. Portland home prices were 10.2% higher in November 2012 than eight months earlier in March 2012.
  2. We have opined for some time to friends and clients that we thought the Portland market was excessively discounted. Put bluntly, houses were just too cheap. The recent appreciation is more of a “correction.” So is there more correction left? We think so. Assuming a historical growth rate in home prices of 4.0%*, Portland and U.S. home prices are still 15% below the long term trend line.

2012-11-Case-Shiller-Composite-Index

Many factors affect the housing market. We’ll review 2012 and forecast 2013 in the days ahead.

*Robert Shiller, co-creator of the CS Index, charted in Irrational Exuberance (titled after the famous term coined by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan) the growth of U.S. home prices since 1890 at a little under 4% per year. Other sources have supported that conclusion.

Filed Under: Market News

Why Haven’t Portland Property Taxes Gone Down With Home Values?

November 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Property taxes were due yesterday, and many Portland homeowners wonder why their taxes haven’t decreased over five years like their home values have. Here is our simplification of a complex topic:

Property taxes are based on the property’s assessed value (AV) multiplied by the applicable millage rate.

Millage rates vary by taxing district and are limited by Measure 5 (passed in 1990), with exceptions.

Assessed value is the lesser of:

  • Real Market Value (RMV), which is the market value on January 1st preceding the July to June tax year, or
  • Maximum Assessed Value (MAV), which is the taxable value limit of each property determined under Measure 50.
  • Measure 50 amended the Oregon constitution to set the 1997-98 property tax year assessed values at the January 1, 1995 real market value less 10%. Since then the MAV has increased three percent each year, no more, no less. One of the arguments made at the time was that a three percent growth rate provided stability and predictability to the property tax system.

Portland Real Market Values (RMV) ) for the 2012-2013 tax year, as estimated by the Case-Shiller Index of median home sale prices, are still well above Maximum Assessed Values (MAV).

In other words, the Maximum Assessed Value of most homes in Portland is still well below the Real Market Value. For most homeowners, there is nothing to appeal.

So who should appeal their property taxes?

  • You think the real market value on January 1, 2012 was less than the assessed value (which is usually the MAV). A bargain purchase, such as from a relative or a distressed owner, will be evaluated at its fair market value, not necessarily what you paid for it.
  • You disagree with the county’s valuation of new construction, remodeling, or other exceptions. Since these are not usually identified on the property tax statement, you will need to contact the county assessor to find out the value placed on any improvements you made. It makes sense to appeal an over-valued RMV for last year’s improvements because it affects both the property RMV and the MAV. You cannot appeal the MAV later.
  • You think the Assessor’s Office made a calculation error in setting the assessed valuation.

How the valuation appeal process works
The Board of Property Tax Appeals only considers assessed valuations. It can not determine the amount of tax to be assessed, nor can it consider financial hardship as a basis for changing an assessment. Appeals will only be heard for current year values, which is why the only way to affect the MAV on improvements is to appeal the RMV of those improvements in the year assessed.

Appeals must be filed between the time property tax bills are mailed and December 31st. More information is available at the Board of Property Tax Appeals web site.

If you miss the deadline or seek to appeal a prior year’s value, you may still be able to file an appeal with the Magistrate Division of the Oregon Tax Court.

As mentioned, a number of fine points have been omitted for simplicity. Consult appropriate professionals if you have concerns.

Filed Under: Market News

Case-Shiller: More Good News In Home Prices

November 8, 2012 by 1 Comment

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed price increases in nineteen of the twenty largest U.S. cities in August 2012. Average prices were up 0.9% from July; Seattle, the lone exception, was down 0.1% from the previous month. Comparing August 2012 to August 2011, which removes some of the seasonal variation, the 20-City Composite was up 2.0%.

Portland prices rose 0.5% in August compared with July and 3.6% compared with August 2011. Of special note, the five-month increase from March 2012 to August 2012 was a robust 9.1% in Portland. Since the Case-Shiller methodology uses a ninety day moving average, March’s low reflected transactions entered into in December, January, and February, while August’s high reflected contracts from May, June, and July. We think the strong performance from March to August shows, in addition to a seasonal bounce, a strong rebound from an overly discounted market. We predicted such a rebound in January 2012.

Seasonal variations will weaken the numbers in the next few months. The usual seasonal decline, however, will be offset by scarce inventories and fewer foreclosures in the coming months. We think prices will rise slightly through the end of the year. That would further confirm that March 2012, when Portland hit its lowest point since the boom, marked the end of the housing crash, both nationally and in Portland.

“The sustained good news in home prices over the past five months makes us optimistic for continued recovery in the housing market,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “News on home prices confirms other good news about housing. Single family housing starts are 43% ahead of last year’s pace, existing and new home sales are also up, the inventory of homes for sale continues to drop and consumer mortgage default rates are reaching new lows. Further consumer confidence continues to rise. Even as we end the seasonally strong home buying period, the statistics are positive.”

Low interest rates continue to make this an excellent time to buy or sell a home. Low interest rate, rising rents, and low vacancies make this an even better time to invest in rental property.

What should you do? Call us at 503.222.4300 to explore some of the great opportunities in this market!

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CNNMoney: Portland in Top 25 Best Places to Retire

October 22, 2012 by Leave a Comment

In a recent CNNMoney article, Portland was listed in the top 25 best cities to retire in for 2012.

Described as “a thriving but manageable city”, the article highlights what we’re best known for: being a food lover’s paradise, highly walkable and biker friendly, easy access to beaches and wine country, our award winning hospitals, and an infinite amount of art exhibits, performing arts and festivals.

As we mentioned in a previous blog post, Portland is heading up the rising trend of condo sales in the U.S.  More and more retirees, as well as young professionals, are desiring to be in a location where they do not have to drive to their favorite restaurants and shops.

Apparently, one need not look any further than our beloved Portland!

Click here to view full article.

Filed Under: Buyers, Market News Tagged With:

Oregon Pumpkin Patches and Corn Mazes

October 12, 2012 by Leave a Comment

It’s that time of year again!  Here’s a list of Pumpkin Patches and Corn Mazes in Oregon.  So bundle up the kids and plan your day of harvest festivities!

Fazio Farms Corn Maze
8433 NE 13th Ave
Portland OR 97211
503.289.2020

The Corn MAiZE at The Pumpkin Patch
16525 NW Gillihan Rd
Portland OR 97231
503.621.7110

Portland Pumpkin Farm
16205 NW Gillihan Road
Portland, OR 97231
503.621.9545

Plumper Pumpkin Patch and Tree Farm
11435 NW Old Cornelius Pass Rd
Portland OR 97231
503.645.9561

Kruger’s Farm Market
17100 NW Sauvie Island Road
Portland, Oregon 97231
503.621.3489

Willamette Valley Fruit Co. Corn Maze & Pumpkin Patch
2994 82nd Avenue NE
Salem, OR 97305
503.362.8678

Pumpkin Funland at Rasmussen Farms
3020 Thomsen Road
Hood River, Oregon 97031
541.386.4622

Oregon Hill Farms
32861 Pittsburg Road
Saint Helens, OR 97051
503.397.2791

Heiser Farms
20900 Grand Island Loop
Dayton, Oregon
503.868.7512

Airlie Hills Farm
10775 Airlie Rd
Monmouth, OR 97361
503.851.6904

Bose Family Farms
35765 Cyrus Rd. NE
Albany OR 97322
541.971.0458

 

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“The Oregonian Cookbook” now in Portland stores

October 5, 2012 by Leave a Comment

If you’re like me, when you first heard that there was a cookbook comprised solely of our native state’s recipes, you were delighted and maybe a little incredulous that such a cookbook wasn’t already in mainstream circulation.

Thanks to Katherine Miller, editor at FOODDAY, more than 300 recipes  are available in ”The Oregonian Cookbook: Best Recipes from FOODDAY”, the first cookbook in over a century to come from The Oregonian.

“We had readers send their favorites from 30 years of columns and staff members recommended their top choices,” Miller told KGW news.

Miller has been writing about Portland’s (as well as  the entire state of Oregon’s)  significance as a rising culinary mecca for the past 22 years.  With 360 recipes covered in 18 chapters, Miller handpicked the recipes and photos, providing background on the recipes, ingredients and sources.

Highlights include: farm-to-table recipes inspired by our bountiful farmer’s market produce; helpful hints for cooking with Oregon specialities such as razor clams, hazelnuts, salmon, berries, and morels; Portland’s connection to influential James Beard; a chapter dedicated to Oregon’s award-winning chefs - including Philippe Boulot, Greg Higgins, Vitaly Paley, Maomi Pomeroy, Andy Ricker, Gabriel Rucker, Lisa Schroeder, and Cathy Whims.

This cookbook is geared to all types of cooks and schedules.  Miller admits some of her favorite recipes are time-sensitive meals, such as a tuna, lemon and olive pasta dish.  Her favorite dessert: spiced pear skillet cake.  How very Oregon!

You may have missed Miller and a panel of local food writers and editors at Powell’s City of Books Wednesday night, but here’s a complete list of Miller’s scheduled appearances.  Stop by and pick up a personally autographed copy of “The Oregonian Cookbook”!

  • 5-7 p.m. Friday, Oct. 5, Fred Meyer Hawthorne, 3805 S.E. Hawthorne Blvd.
  • 1-3 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 6, Kitchen Kaboodle, 404 N.W. 23rd Ave.
  • 2-4 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 13, New Seasons Cedar Hills, 3495 S.W. Cedar Hills Blvd.
    Beaverton
  • 5-7 p.m. Friday, Oct. 19, Fred Meyer Burlingame, 7555 S.W. Barbur Blvd.
  • 10 a.m.-noon Saturday, Oct. 27, Costco, 15901 S.W. Jenkins Road, Aloha
  • 1-3 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 27, Costco, 7850 S.W. Dartmouth, Tigard
  • 1-3 p.m. Saturday, Nov. 17, Kitchen Kaboodle, 8788 S.W. Hall Blvd.
  • Noon-4 p.m. Sunday, Dec. 2, Holiday Cheer Autograph Event, Oregon Historical Society, 1200 S.W. Park Ave.
  • 5-7 p.m. Friday, Dec. 7, Fred Meyer Hollywood, 3030 N.E. Weidler St.
  • 1-3 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 8, Made in Oregon, Washington Square
  • 2-2:30 p.m. Friday, Dec. 14, Made in Oregon, Pioneer Place
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Autumn in Portland: Festivals, Fundraisers & Exhibits

September 13, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Despite the lingering warm weather, Fall is in the air, bringing a new season of fundraisers, festivals and exhibits.  Hopefully, the kids (and you) have adjusted to the back-to-school routine and can enjoy the Northwest’s best season. Here’s a list of upcoming events in the Portland area.

California Impressionism @ The Portland Art Museum
Sep.12th – 16th, 10am – 5pm
1219 SW Park Ave.
Portland, OR 97205

General admission: $15.00

Ringling Bros and Barnum & Baily Circus
Sep. 13th – 16th
Rose Garden Arena
1 North Center Court St., Suite 150
Portland, OR 97227

Tickets start at $20, times vary

Susan G. Komen Race for the Cure
Sep. 16th, 5k starts at 7:30am
Tom McCall Waterfront Park
750 SW Naito Parkway
Portland, OR 97204

Hopefully you’ve already signed up to join the race, if not, it’s not too late to sponser or donate!

Step Out: Walk to Stop Diabetes
Sep. 22nd, 8am – 1pm
Rose Quarter Memorial Coliseum
1 North Center Court St., Suite 150
Portland, OR 97227

1st Annual Northwest BMW Motorfest
Sept. 25th, 4 – 9pm
Blitz Bar in SE Portland
2235 SE 11th Ave.
Portland, OR 97214

Cost: 2 cans of food, all food donation will be given to Fish Emergency Services.

Strut Your Mutt for Homeless Pets @ Laurelhurst Park
(raises money for rescue animals)
Sep. 29th, 7: 30am – 12pm
3756 SE Oak St.
Portland, OR 97214

Individuals: $30
Couples: $50
Kids (12 and under): $20

Portland Fashion & Style Awards
Oct. 5th, 8pm
Arlene Schnitzer Concert Hall
1037 SW Broadway
Portland, OR 97205

Tickets start at $41.50

Portland Pet Expo
Oct. 6th, 10am – 6pm
Portland Expo Center
2060 N. Marine Dr.
Portland, OR 97217

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Multnomah Days Parade and Street Fair this Weekend!

August 17, 2012 by Leave a Comment

The temperature is supposed to drop by tomorrow, so don’t let that be your excuse for missing a day of fun at the annual Multnomah Days Parade and Street Fair, this Saturday, August 18th. Multnomah Days is a great way to spend a Saturday enjoying Portland’s charming neighborhood, Multnomah Village. There’s definitely something for everyone, from the Kiwanis Pancake Breakfast to the Multnomah Days Parade, live music, the arts and crafts fair, an energy fair, and the DoveLewis Dog Wash at the Lucky Lab Pub. The “biggest little parade” begins at 10:00am with Timber Joey leading the way as Grand Marshal.  What better way to enjoy a summer day in Portland?

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Annual “National Night Out 2012″ in Bridlemile

August 6, 2012 by Leave a Comment

The Bridlemile Annual “National Night Out” Community Potluck Picnic will take place at Hamilton Park (next to Bridlemile School) on Tuesday, August 7, 2012  from 6:30 to Dusk.

Meet your neighbors while enjoying food, games, and live music by The Beat Goes On. The Portland Fire Department will stop by, as will Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici.

National Night Out began in 1983 with the intent to build up neighborhood spirit and police-community partnerships; increase crime and drug prevention awareness; drum up support for and participation in local anticrime programs; and send a message to criminals letting them know that neighborhoods are united and fighting back.

Bring a dish to share, something to sit on, and spend an evening with your Bridlemile neighbors!

 

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Case-Shiller: Portland Home Prices Up 2.6% in May

August 3, 2012 by Leave a Comment

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday showed price increases in all 20 major U.S. cities in May 2012. Prices were up 2.2% from April, which is the largest monthly jump in the 12-year history of the 20-city index. The index was down a modest 0.7% from May 2011. Twelve cities, including Portland, rose in May compared to a year ago, and eight cities posted declines. None of the twenty cities included in the index posted a new low.

Portland prices jumped 2.6% in May compared with April and 0.4% compared with May 2011. This is the first time since 2010 that the index showed an annual increase in Portland home prices. Unlike 2010, where an expiring tax incentive stimulated the market, the current increase in both price and sales is occurring on its own.

Inventories are scarce and foreclosures are making up a smaller share of sales. It is likely that prices for June and July will continue the upward trend. That would mean March 2012, when Portland hit its lowest point since the boom, marked the end of the housing crash, both nationally and in Portland.

Nationally, home prices have retreated 32.7% from their pre-recession peak in July 2006. Portland home prices are down 27.6% from their July 2007 peak, and are roughly comparable to December 2004 levels.

According to the Oregonian, several noted sources expressed similar opinions:

  • Tim Duy, a Univ. of Oregon economist – “I expect conditions to continue to improve but would caution against expecting a rapid return to the prices seen in 2005.”
  • Zillow reported Portland home prices to bottom in first quarter of the year and rebound in the second quarter.
  • CoreLogic reported Portland home prices being up 3.6% since last May.
  • “We’re coming back to a more normal state of appreciation.” – Jerry Johnson, economist with Johnson Reid, LLC.  “Now all the market conditions say this is what should be happening.”

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What should you do? Call us as 503.222.4300

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