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Is Phil’s Prediction of 10% Price Appreciation in 1st Half 2018 Really that Bold?

I wanted to follow up Phil’s October 10th blog post declaring our market a “screaming buy” and our 10/13 podcast with Phil’s prediction of a 10% market rise in next year’s first half with some additional context.

graph 1

This chart shows data from RMLS statistical reports for the Portland market. Over the past two years, most of the price appreciation has happened in the first half of each year. The market has been essentially flat in the back half of each year. Part of the explanation is that inventory tends to build in the second and third quarter (see boxes in chart above), and get sold off over the back half of the year.

The other part of the explanation is the mix of home sales: larger, family, homes at higher price-points tend to be more seasonal than the rest of our market (see chart below), and are front-loaded to sell in the first half around the school calendar.

graph 2

This chart above shows the currently available inventory of homes in N. Portland, NE Portland, SE Portland, and West Portland, segmented by home size. The median list price of homes between 2,300 – 3,000 square feet (SF) is almost $600,000, while those larger than 3,000 SF is approaching $900,000.

These are also the segments of our market where the selection is the best, and the opportunity for buyers to be more aggressive in their negotiation is more robust. Anyone that wants to “move up” to a larger home will want to seriously consider executing those plans now.

If this has piqued your interest, and you want to look at the differences within the areas of Portland, I’ve included a chart with September sales data for these Portland areas.

graph 3

This chart clearly demonstrates the relative strength of Northeast Portland over the other areas of Portland, and the overall appreciation for all these areas of Portland.

We’re always happy to schedule time to talk in more detail about the Portland real estate market and further explain our assessments of what’s been happening and what’s likely to occur over the coming months. We’re most interested in learning what you’re thinking about, and how we can help you make your vision become real. All you have to do is call, text or email your favorite Portland Home team agent.